Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with defending ACC champion Florida State. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke
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Imagine what might have been had Jordan Travis not broken his leg in that throwaway game against Alabama State last November.
You can bet Mike Novell has done it a time or two. Even though he’ll never publicly admit it.
There would have been no snub. No Orange Bowl drubbing.
Who knows whether Florida State would have won the national championship with its star quarterback healthy and in the lineup. But at least it would have a chance to find out on the field.
But that’s last year’s news now.
A new season is about to begin, earlier for FSU than most, too. The Noles play Georgia Tech in Week 0.
And with only 4 returning starters on each side of the ball, there aren’t many of those 2023 Seminoles’ around to lament or be motivated by last year’s disappointment.
Norvell and his reloaded team can take at least some solace in that no undefeated power conference champion will ever be left out of the College Football Playoff again now that it has been expanded to 12 teams, with automatic bids going to the winners of the 5 highest-rated league champions.
Now all they have to do is put themselves in a position to get there.
“Our objective this year is to go get better,” Norvell said. “Coming off what was a 13-0 regular season and championship game was something that was really a special experience for our entire program. It sets the stage and opportunity for us to continue to push and continue to elevate this program to ultimately where it deserves to be. That’s among the nation’s elite.”
The Seminoles took a major step in that direction in 2023. Their ability to continue the climb back to the top this season will depend on how well their large, talented group of transfers buys into Norvell’s system and how quickly they’re able to mesh as a team.
They’ll also have to negotiate a difficult schedule that includes a tricky ACC opener against Georgia Tech in Ireland and a trip to Notre Dame, in addition to pivotal rivalry games against Clemson and Miami.
It’s a road full of potential potholes. But it’s one that could lead FSU to a much more satisfying destination if it’s able to stay focused on what could be rather than staring into the rearview mirror wondering what might have been.
So let’s get out the GPS and break down the journey.
Transfer tracker
Nick Saban couldn’t have picked a better time to call it a career at Alabama. At least from FSU’s perspective. The Crimson Tide’s loss became the Seminoles’ gain after Norvell swooped in to pick up 5 of Saban’s former players who entered the portal after their coach retired.
It’s a group led by Malik Benson, who emerged as FSU’s WR1 during spring practice. Offensive lineman Terrence Ferguson II, cornerback Earl Little Jr., linebacker Shawn Murphy and running back Roydell Williams also made the move from Tuscaloosa to Tallahassee.
They’re part of a 17-man transfer class rated No. 1 in the ACC and No. 7 nationally by 247 Sports.
While Norvell’s aggressive use of the portal a year ago was by choice, supplementing one of the nation’s best-returning cores with just the right mix of newcomers to create a championship unit, this current free agent haul was assembled out of necessity.
The Seminoles lost 10 players to the NFL Draft, including 1st-round picks Jared Verse, Keon Coleman and the all-important Travis. Among the most significant of the incoming replacements, other than the Alabama contingent, are quarterback DJ Uiagalelei from Oregon State (by way of ACC rival Clemson), edge rusher Marvin Jones Jr. from Georgia, wide receiver Jalen Brown from LSU, linebacker Cam Riley from Auburn and running back Jaylen Lucas from Indiana.
“When you see guys with all different journeys and experiences come together, how much they care about each other, the willingness to invest, challenge and encourage each other throughout the circ*mstances that are going to show up, that’s the challenge in college football,” Norvell said. “I think this team has really embraced that.
“I think we have a group of like-minded individuals. They love to work. They’re willing to embrace challenge. It’s that cohesiveness that has me excited about what this team’s potential can be.”
Next man up
The Seminoles have sent a steady stream of elite edge rushers to the NFL, with Brian Burns, Jermaine Johnson and now Verse all going in Round 1 over the past 6 drafts. It’s a line of succession that’s almost certain to continue in 2024 with redshirt junior Patrick Payton.
A 6-5, 235-pound combination of speed, length and power, Payton could have transferred virtually anywhere else to become a prime-time player sooner. Instead, the former 4-star prospect chose to stay at FSU. watching and learning in a secondary role while waiting for his turn in the spotlight.
“One thing I learned from Jermaine is how hungry he was,” Payton said. “He was a pro. He watched film like a pro, practiced like a pro every day and really dominated everybody.
“Jared Verse, it’s how hard he plays and the edge that he had. He knew he was always the most talented guy coming out of high school. But he’s going to work hard every day in the weight room, at practice. He’s a last-one-out-of-practice type of guy. That’s one thing I learned from both of them.”
Payton has already established his credentials as a top NFL prospect. He recorded 44 tackles, 14.5 TFLs and 7.0 sacks last season while splitting time with Verse and 2nd-rounder Braden Fiske in a defense that helped carry the Seminoles to a 13-0 start and ACC championship.
Although he briefly flirted with entering the transfer portal in search of name, image and likeness opportunities in the same ballpark as Verse, Payton decided to stay at FSU and take the next step toward becoming the program’s next 1st round success story.
Which DJU will the Seminoles get?
Of all the holes Norvell had to fill this offseason, none was bigger than the one at quarterback. With Travis having been drafted by the New York Jets, Tate Rodemaker transferring and Orange Bowl sacrificial lamb Brock Glenn not ready to take over, the Seminoles had to look elsewhere to find a veteran capable of coming in and running the ACC’s top-ranked offense.
They targeted Washington State’s Cam Ward. But when he chose rival Miami, Uiagalelei became Plan B.
The graduate transfer from Oregon State, who played his first 3 seasons at Clemson, is a proven commodity who led the Tigers to the ACC Championship Game in 2022 before being replaced by Cade Klubnik. His dual-threat playmaking ability makes him a solid choice to pick up where Travis left off in leading the Seminoles’ bid to defend their conference title. But he also has a history of being wildly inconsistent during his college career.
Which version of DJU the Seminoles get between the one that threw for 5 touchdowns against Cal last season or the one whose sometimes questionable decision-making got him benched at Clemson will go a long way toward determining how successful their 2024 season will be. Though it’s still early, his teammates are encouraged by what they’ve seen.
“DJ has been a very unselfish person, just trying to get to know all the teammates, be around us, get to know this team, buy into this program,” offensive lineman Darius Washington said. “He can make an impact on everybody on the team just by the way he is, how he comes in every day and works with us.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 0: vs. Georgia Tech at Dublin, Ireland (L)
If there’s ever a time to catch the ‘Noles this season, it’s early before all their transfers get on the same page. And Georgia Tech gets the first crack. In an environment that can be as distracting to a football player as a cell phone in the hands of a driver behind the wheel in rush hour traffic. FSU will be the better team in the long run. But not today.
Week 1: Boston College (W)
Back in the USA and the Seminoles give new Eagles coach Bill O’Brien a rude welcome to the ACC.
Week 2: Open
Week 3: vs. Memphis (W)
No time for fond memories. Norvell puts the hammer down on his former team.
Week 4: vs. Cal (W)
Pac-12 flashback for FSU’s new quarterback. DJU threw for 5 touchdowns while putting up 52 points to beat the Bears while at Oregon State last year.
Week 5: at SMU (W)
The defending ACC champions remind the 2023 AAC champions that they’re not in the Group of 5 anymore.
Week 6: vs. Clemson (W)
DJU led the Tigers to the ACC Championship Game in 2022 only to get run out of town in favor of Cade Klubnik. Think he has this game circled in red on his calendar? There’s no better payback than beating your old team and the quarterback they replaced you with.
Week 7: Open
Week 8: at Duke (W)
Playing the Blue Devils on a weeknight in Durham can be dangerous. Especially when Duke has extra time to prepare. Just ask Clemson.
Week 9: at Miami (W)
A Sunshine State showdown with plenty of subplots. The ACC has been waiting since the Hurricanes came into the league 2 decades ago for this rivalry to become a marquee matchup with championship implications. It might finally become one.
Week 10: vs. North Carolina (W)
The Tar Heels have won 2 out of their past 3 visits to Doak Campbell Stadium. They’ll be leaving Tallahassee with a loss this time.
Week 11: at Notre Dame (W)
This game won’t have any bearing on the ACC standings and FSU’s Playoff hopes. But it’s a golden opportunity to make a statement under the Golden Dome for the conference and the Seminoles.
Week 12: Open
Week 13: vs. Charleston Southern (W)
If last year’s Alabama State disaster proved anything, it’s that every game – even blowouts against overmatched opponents – is meaningful.
Week 14: vs. Florida (W)
The Seminoles turn up the temperature on Billy Napier’s hot seat. That is if Napier is still around by Week 14.
2024 Projection: 11-1 (7-1)
#NoleFamily
If we’ve learned anything during the current election cycle, it’s that polls can differ greatly depending on who and how many people are being surveyed.
Garbage in, garbage out.
It’s a concept that holds true in sports as well, which makes it difficult to get a firm grip on just what to expect from FSU as it heads into the 2024 season. The outlook varies depending on which bloc of voters you ask.
Those casting ballots on the ACC’s preseason poll believe the Seminoles are going to be just as dominant as they were a year ago. FSU received 81 out of 170 1st-place votes and is a solid favorite to win the conference again.
Coaches voting on their national poll are much more skeptical because of the roster turnover Norvell’s team has experienced. While the Seminoles are the highest-rated ACC team, they barely squeaked into the top 10 overall.
It’s possible both views can be accurate. FSU could turn out to be the best team in the conference without making much of a splash nationally. But it could just as easily win its way into the newly expanded Playoff and make the most of the opportunity last year’s team was denied.
In football as in politics, you just never know how the campaign will play out until the final votes are counted. Or the games are played.
